Hurricanes and Global Warming (broadcast Friday, April 18th, 2008)

Hurricane Katrina, August 28 2005. NOAA image.

In a noted paper published just weeks before the landfall of Hurricane Katrina Kerry Emanuel of MIT said that there appeared to be a statistical link between global warming and hurricane intensity, with warmer temperatures leading to stronger storms. Now, using new models of the atmosphere, Emanuel and colleagues say the link may not be so clear after all.

"When applied to simulations of global climate with double the present concentration of carbon dioxide, this method predicts substantial changes and geographic shifts in tropical cyclone activity, but with much variation among the global climate models used," the researchers write. "Basinwide power dissipation and storm intensity generally increase with global warming, but the results vary from model to model and from basin to basin." However, Emanuel stresses that the work does not disprove a connection between hurricanes and global warming -- it just means that the relationship is complicated. "The idea that there is no connection between hurricanes and global warming, that's not supported," said Emanuel. In this segment, Ira talks with Kerry Emanuel about his work and what it means for hurricane and climate researchers. Teachers, find more information about using Science Friday as a classroom resource in the Kids' Connection.