The SciFri Blog

LLL200, The Map

nospam@example.com (Carl Flatow) — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:59:26 -0500

We just got our first LLL200 supporters (TWO!) in Kentucky. I'm really looking forward to crossing the Mississippi River. See our progress at The Map page at DtE, or follow us via Twitter (@DTESFI). Put yourself on The Map! Join our campaign to celebrate a great unsung American Inventor who had an impact on the lives of most everyone who eats.

Bee Glue v. HIV

nospam@example.com (Carl Flatow) — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:39:51 -0500

If you do a Google search for the word "propolis" you are sure to find a wide range of Web pages describing the benefits of this "bee glue" to human health. None of these are more interesting to me than the reports on the work of Marla Spivak, PhD, professor in the Department of Entomology at the University of Minnesota and her team. A paper published in 2005, of which she was a co-author, concludes in part "the results of these in vitro studies suggest that propolis has potent antiviral activity against X4 and R5 HIV-1 variants."

In a recent lecture I attended, her associate, Gary Reuter described the work they have just concluded on the "hygienic behavior" of bees. "Hygienic bees detect and remove infected brood from the nest before the pathogen becomes infectious."

I look forward to learning more of their results on the benefits that the study of honey bees brings to bees and to humans.

The Ice Age ComethNOT!

nospam@example.com (Neil Wagner) — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 01:00:00 -0500

Current knowledge of past thoughts on the future.
Remember that time in the 70's when the scientific community was convinced the world was headed for an ice age? Global warming skeptics sure do. "False ice age hysteria" is a commonly cited reason for doubting man-made global warming.

Unfortunately, that period of scientific ice age fever never existed. The mass media covered the story and the general public took notice. After all, it was wild and it was scary. But research conducted by Thomas Peterson of the National Climatic Data Center shows that peer-reviewed scientific journals during that era published more articles about global warming than about a coming ice age. In fact the score was 44 to 7.

In contrast with the public's interest in the ice age story, scientists feel the public's attitude towards global warming demonstrates a very unusual circumstance: scientists are more concerned than the general population.

Robert Wilder, CEO of WilderShares, which manages cleantech indices:
"Scientists are by their nature conservative and not prone to wild-eyed hyperboleIt's almost invariable that the public is more alarmed than the scientists about most problems, but with climate change the scientists are more worried than the public. That is worrisome".

Mr. Wilder's thoughts are echoed by others, such as "Field Notes from a Catastrophe" author Elizabeth Kolbert.

Learn more about the cold, hard facts...

USA Today article about Peterson's research

Robert Wilder's thoughts

North Korea's New Sunshine Policy?

nospam@example.com (Jocelyn Ford) — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 01:31:00 -0500

Energy-challenged North Korea's in the news again.

President. Obama on his first trip to Asia is reiterating he believes North Korea would be better off if it agreed to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.

Consider what the economically and energy-challenged nation could've achieved if, instead of focusing its engineers on nuclear development, it'd assigned them to develop less-threatening renewable energy technologies.

Well, as it turns out, Pyongyang is giving solar a try, and it's looking to China for help.

It recently turned to a Chinese state-run solar company Beijing Tsinghua Solar to provide solar hot water panels to heat a three-story office building. The phalanx of 1,030 square meters of panels produce 30 tons of hot water a day to flow through heating ducts under the floor.

The project started running in the freezing winter months earlier this year, and so far, according to the company's regional manager Jing Wei, it's operating smoothly.

When I ran into Jing Wei he admitted he doesn't know what the building is used for-- as usual, mum is the word in the secretive country.

And no, this isn't a money-making venture, he says. Jing Wei presumes his company was selected because of the trust factor due to its affiliation with the Chinese Communist Party. His company wanted to get its foot in the door of a new market, so it offered a sweet deal.

Jing Wei is hopeful one day North Korea will tap his company for more panels, and eventually Beijing Tsinghua Solar will make money in the hermit country.

He just has no idea when.

Perhaps President Obama should be trying to cut a different deal: we'll buy your renewable solar and wind technologies, if you'll give up on the nukes.

You want consensus? We've GOT consensus.

nospam@example.com (Neil Wagner) — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 01:00:00 -0500

97% of climate scientists believe humans cause global warming. At least it's not unanimous.

Suppose you were feeling out of sorts and went to your family doctor, a general practitioner. The G.P said you had a serious illness that needed treatment. Being cautious, prudent and conservative about such things, you got a second opinion. Suppose you sought 10 opinions in all. Eight of the 10 G.P.'s identified the same illness.

You then sought the diagnosis of a specialist before pursuing treatment. Let's get crazy and say you went to 100 specialists. 97 of them gave you the same diagnosis the eight G.P.'s had given. Would you seek treatment or decide the doctors were wrong and that there really was no problem?

The overwhelming consensus I just described is the same kind of consensus scientists express when it comes to global warming. A University of Illinois survey released earlier this year asked questions of 3,146 earth scientists. 82% of the group said they believed both that global warming was happening and that humans are a significant factor in causing it. When the questions were put specifically to climate scientists actively involved in the study of climate change, 97% of them held that same opinion.

Even geologists and meteorologists associated with the petroleum industry (not the likeliest of believers) were almost 50/50 on the matter.

Check it out...

Info on the University of Illinois Survey

Drive The Lunar Rover Yourself

nospam@example.com (Ira Flatow) — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 23:30:58 -0500

Cool new website allows you to drive a lunar rover around on the moon.

Celebrating Honey Bee Science with L.L. Langstroth's 200th Birthday

nospam@example.com (Carl Flatow) — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 18:39:04 -0500

Two hundred years after his birth in 1810, Rev. Lorenzo Lorraine Langstroth, known as the Father of American Beekeeping," will be honored. Langstroth's discovery of "bee space" and his invention of the movable-frame beehive will be celebrated with a national network of exhibits, workshops and seminars and, with your help, perhaps a commemorative U.S. postage stamp as well.

Langstroth started with "two stocks of bees in common box hives" while serving as a minister in Andover, Mass. in the 1830s. Before long he was studying beekeeping in depth. He observed his bees and sought to understand their ways in order to build hive boxes which would allow him to better combat the destructive wax moths and collect surplus honey without harming the bees or damaging their wonderful honey comb.

This is the essence of the scientific method. Those who might think that Langstroth was an unlikely scientist would be misunderstanding the role of science in our lives. The scientific method involves experiencing the world in which we live, responding to the curiosity that naturally resides inside us, devising a method of observing and recording, testing and confirming our expectations, and evaluating the results we achieve. It is available and important to each and every one of us, just as it was to Langstroth.

Langstroths efforts gave us a way to raise large quantities of bees, keep them healthy and collect their honey in a truly sustainable way, without destroying their home. We all owe him thanks and, the year 2010, his 200th birthday year is a great time for people across the country to celebrate him in ways that benefit us all.

Our effort to honor Langstroth will include the study and appreciation of his efforts and what they have yielded. Throughout the year 2010, the Down to Earth Program, which I direct for the non-profit Science Friday Initiative (SFI), will be developing and coordinating a national network of workshops, exhibits and gatherings to teach and learn about the considerable science connected with the honey bee. Please visit the Down to Earth section of the SFI Web site for details. (www.scifri.org/dte)

But theres something we need to do right NOW. We must convince the U.S. Postal Service that America deserves a commemorative postage stamp created in honor of this outstanding under-appreciated American. It is my hope that the beekeeping community, anyone who enjoys honey, and everyone who appreciates the foods we eat which depend on the honey bee, will write a letter encouraging the U.S. Postal Service to honor Langstroth in this way at this special time.

I believe that a flood of letters will help to convince the Postal Service how important Langstroth is to all of us. The U.S. Postal Service Citizens' Stamp Advisory Committee will be considering a Langstroth stamp at their January 2010 meeting, so please send them a letter, today. Get everyone you know on board the postage stamp campaign, and have them enlist their friends.

We will also be preparing a mass petition. Please send an email to me at LLL200@scifri.org and include your Zip Code so that we may show the geographic breadth of this support. This is also a great way to coordinate celebrations in your community with ours.

Send a letter to:
CSAC c/o Stamp Development U.S. Postal Service 1735 North Lynn Street Suite 5013 Arlington, VA 22209-6432
Email me at:
LLL200-at-scifri.org

Meat and heat

nospam@example.com (Neil Wagner) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 01:05:00 -0500

Steak...chops...burgers...ribs. Mmmm. Give me a minute. I know I was going somewhere with this.

Now I remember! Many of us can relate to Bebbo's plight today. Meat tastes good. Very good. But the process that starts with finding suitable land and ends with a cut of meat is one that produces a lot of greenhouse gases. In fact, it looks like meat production is responsible for 18% of all anthropogenic carbon emissionsmore than the 13% produced by all our cars, trucks, planes, et al.

Part of the problem is that a lot of forest land is cleared out to make room for livestock and for growing feed. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that 70% of former forest cover in Latin America has been cleared away to accommodate grazing. All those trees used to absorb carbon dioxide and are now actually releasing it.

Of course, not everyone (particularly those responsible for producing meat) agrees. Is it possible that the issue is not meat production, nor even how much meat is produced, but rather HOW the process happens?

Here's some meaty information on the topic...

WWF report

Time Magazine

Britain's Lord Stern wants people to give up meat to save the planet

Are some methods of meat production more climate-friendly than others?

Teens Discovering Public Radio

nospam@example.com (Ira Flatow) — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 16:15:22 -0500

My good friend and colleague Jim Russell turned me on to the latest Arbitron Report profiling the public radio audience

Public Radio Today: How America Listens to Public Radio (2009 Edition).

And some of the conclusions contradict what you may think about radio listening. Because while print media is tanking, the headlines read:

Public Radio Audience Rises 5%
The Greatest Increase Is From Teens

Quoting directly from the report: While the lions share of public radio listening comes from Adults 35+, the greatest increases seen between Fall 2006 and 2008 came from teen boys and girls, whose cume ratings were up 37% and 21%, respectively. Data suggest that listening by teens increased significantly across all dayparts by as much as 50%.

These data can only be great news for the future of Public Radio. And they back up the data showing a sharp rise in our Science Friday audience, too.

You can download the entire report free.

Pandemics: A Cautionary Tale from China

nospam@example.com (Jocelyn Ford) — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 00:19:37 -0500

Having lived through Beijing's 2003 SARS epidemic and experienced China's secretive response, it is refreshing to see the U.S. debating how to divvy up scarce medical resources should hospitals be overwhelmed with pandemic patients.

But I haven't seen much discussion on how to try to prevent medical facilities being deluged with patients who shouldn't be there in the first place.

A doctor at a ground zero hospital in Flushing, NY, told me when the 2009 H1N1 virus first hit the headlines last spring, less than 1 percent who came in for testing were infected. The flood of potential patients not only taxed the hospital, but could have put some of the test-seekers at greater risk of infection.

Let me share a cautionary tale of friends' experience during China's SARS epidemic, and ponder some lessons for the U.S. as it grapples with 2009 H1N1.

My friend writes about his wife's roommates, I'll call them "Mr. A" and his girlfriend "Ms.B":

"Mr. A went on a business trip by train and when he came back, he had the symptoms of a cold. He went to the hospital. It was crowded. He had to wait in the hallway. That was the time when SARS was spread in this hospital and many people contacted the virus this way. He was diagnosed as SARS and was hospitalized.

A few days later, Ms. B had symptoms of a cold too. She went to the hospital, and was diagnosed with SARS, too. Both were given large amounts of steroids.

It is not clear whether they really had SARS, or were (incorrectly) diagnosed with SARS. If they did have it, it is unclear whether the boy contacted SARS in the hospital or on his business trip. There was no report of other SARS patients on the train he took."

My friend's wife had the same symptoms. She worried she would be forcibly hospitalized, regardless of whether she had SARS. So she isolated herself and nursed herself back to health.

Mr. A and Ms. B are reportedly suffering life-long consequences from the steroids, which were administered with the aim of reducing inflammation of the lungs. (According to this research it was not possible to determine whether such treatments benefited patients during the SARS outbreak. Of 29 studies on steroid use, 25 were inconclusive and four found that the treatment caused possible harm.)

My take-away: The U.S. should improve public education about when to seek medical help for H1N1, the risks of going to crowded hospitals, and the pros and cons of self-imposed isolation. This should be an important component in reducing the burden on overwhelmed health systems.

Over the top understatement

nospam@example.com (Neil Wagner) — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 01:00:00 -0400

When yesterday's gross exaggeration becomes today's underestimation.

Those who are skeptical about the existence of anthropogenic climate change often think of scientists' predictions as far-fetched and dramatic; that they just like to make things sound much more horrific than they will actually be. There is plenty of evidence to the contrary. Not only do results come in worse than predicted, scientists sometimes learn the unhappy news decades before the time span of their climate models is nearing its end.

Here are a few examples...

"Arctic sea ice is melting at a rate far quicker than predicted by climate change computer models"

"The scientific consensus is that we are headed into big trouble," he said. He said a fast thaw of Arctic sea ice in summer indicated that the impacts of climate change were worse than predicted by a U.N. panel of scientists just two years ago."

"We now have data showing that from 2000 to 2007, greenhouse gas emissions increased far more rapidly than we expected..."

"Global level of greenhouse gases is now far worse than predicted..."

A global warming ghost story

nospam@example.com (Neil Wagner) — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 01:00:00 -0400

Vampires & werewolves are no match for geopolitical turmoil

There has been plenty of talk about the potential worldwide unrest that could be caused by global warming. Droughts and famine could lead to mass migration and uprisings. Last week's "What on Earth?" touched on the U.S. Military's plans for dealing with security threats posed by climate change.

But Francois Gemenne of the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations in Paris raises a more specific question about island nations that are productive members of the global economy and international community. What will happen when they want to maintain their standing after their homelands are lost to the rising sea levels caused by climate change?

Gemenne says cultural and sentimental attachments are only part of the story. Tuvalu, for instance, is a small island state that makes millions annually selling its assigned internet suffix ".tv" to television companies. It also has international standing through the UN.

"As independent nations they receive certain rights and privileges that they will not want to lose. Instead they could become like ghost states," he said. "This is a pressing issue for small island states, but in the case of physical disappearance there is a void in international law."

Global warming is a threat to the ".tv" industry. Now THAT'S scary.

Here are all the hair-raising details...

Ghost states

Climate change: It's not just for tree huggers anymore

nospam@example.com (Neil Wagner) — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 09:24:00 -0400

Climate change talk takes a right turn

While the military and intelligence communities analyze global warming's impact, and politicians debate how to address it, one thing is clear: increasing numbers of conservatives believe in it.

Last year, an intelligence forecast that was prepared for President Bush predicted a decline in U.S. dominance, and that global warming would be part of the problem. A little earlier in the year, the president himself stated outright that global warming was real. Newt Gingrich has written a book that focuses on climate change among other environmental issues. Finally, just this August, The New York Times reported on a number of ways in which the military is incorporating global warming into its strategic planning.

Of course, many conservatives don't agree with progressives about how to combat global warming, but it's a start.

Here's the scoop on greening conservatism...

George W. Bush

Newt Gingrich's "A Contract with the Earth"

Pat Robertson

Lindsey Graham

U.S. Intelligence community

U.S. Military

Green Entrepreneurs Top China's Billionaire List

nospam@example.com (Jocelyn Ford) — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 01:55:43 -0400

In this age of scary headlines about disappearing arctic polar caps and climate change, it's reassuring to see the two richest business people in China are both in environmentally-friendly businesses.

The latest rich list names electric car battery tycoon Wang Chuanfu, born into a farming family, as the richest man in China. He has a 5.1 billion dollar fortune. Number two is paper recycling queen Zhang Yin, who imports recycled paper and sends it back as packaging for exports.

Wang shot to the top of the rich list with the help of Warren Buffett. Last year Buffett invested $230 million dollars in BYD. That inspired other investors to pile on giving Buffett a $1 billion profit, at least on paper.

Wang Chuanfu is a late comer to the race to build an affordable electric car, but according to a bullish article by Fortune, he's whizzing ahead of the competition. Last year he became the first automaker to launch mass production of a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle.

An upcoming car, the E6, can reportedly travel 250 miles on a single charge from the regular socket in your garage, compared to the usual top range for electric cars of 50 to 100 miles. Proprietary "quick charge" technology should enable a 50% recharge in 10 minutes.

The vehicle can go from 0 to 60 mph in 8 seconds, and reach a top speed of 100 miles per hour. All this, for about $20,000. What a deal!

BYD was able to develop lithium-iron-phosphate batteries for the F3DM cars by taking advantage of the China cost-- investing in about 10,000 engineers at monthly salaries of around $700.

Better yet, BYD has developed a nontoxic electrolyte fluid making his batteries 100 percent recyclable. And true to his humble roots, Wang runs a frugal operation-- not many fancy executive privileges a la Detroit.

The company now says it'll overtake Toyota by 2025 to become the world's biggest auto company.

Wow! It's nice to feel the humble environmental good guy can not only help save the world-- he can even get rich doing it!

But some of my warm fuzzy feeling disappeared when I scratched beneath the headline.

Consider the following:

Sales so far for the F3DM plug-in Hybrid, less than 100. So much for its 3,000-4,000 sales projection for this year. By the way, few in China, now the world's largest auto market, have any where to plug in the car, even if they can afford the $22,000 price tag. That's more than double the cost of BYD's similar sized gas-guzzler in China.

In China, BYD sold only 246,881 gas-fueled cars in the first three quarters of this year. GM sold 814,442 vehicles, followed by Volkswagen, with 652,436.

BYD plans to roll out its E6 in the U.S. next year. Investor Ravi Nagarajan has some nice things to say about the car and its potential in the U.S. But some analysts are throwing cold water on the story.

Morgan Stanley analysts Jasmine Lu and Tim Hsiao write: "We do not think BYD can commercially roll out its electric car into the US market, because of the rigorous safety requirements and longer warranty required... We believe this is more a marketing effort to raise brand awareness for BYD's car in the US; initially it will target government agencies, utilities and some celebrities in a specific region."

For the sake of the environment, I hope they're wrong.

The Nobel Prize and U.S. Pre-eminence in Science

nospam@example.com (Jocelyn Ford) — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 00:55:10 -0400

I was intrigued by the AP story about the Nobel prize windfall and why the U.S. dominates the world in the sciences.

The article quoted the chief of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences saying there are two big reasons for this: money and ambition. The article went on to compare the U.S. and European countries, with one mention of Japan, which is ahead of Europe in terms of funding and higher education.

Not a mention of China, or India or any other emerging nations.

So, let me address some other factors the article could've taken into consideration when it comes to China.

The Chinese government may not be pumping as much money into R&D as the U.S. or even Japan, but it's rapidly increasing spending, has loads of ambition, has long-term planning, and is investing in top-of-the-line labs and talent.

On the money side, this year China's government is increasing R&D spending by nearly 26 percent over last year to $25.7, about the amount the U.S. earmarks for government labs. That compares with Japan's $37 billion, and $99 billion total for the U.S., if you include government spending on industry and academia. I suspect these numbers don't account for the difference in buying power. In China, one research dollar goes a lot further than in the U.S. or Japan.

On the ambition side, take a look at the new publications outlining China's science and technology "roadmap to 2050" coming out this week.

The science publisher Springer and the Chinese Academy of Sciences, China's highest academic institution in natural sciences are publishing roadmaps for the next 40 years for a half dozen fields, including space science, marine sciences, biomass and public health. More volumes are to follow next summer for a total of 18 reports.

You may not want to read through the turgid poorly edited text, peppered with politically-correct phrases.

But it's worth skimming through the online material to get an idea about China's focus for the future.

The basic premise is China needs to use science to create an "innovation-driven" country with a sustainable economy, and that breakthroughs in science and technology have a far reaching impact on the rise and fall of nations.

China is rising, and intends to continue to do so. The leadership recognizes science will be a key ingredient to its success and it has a strategy, and is putting its money where its mouth is.