How much worse was that storm because of climate change?

[THEME MUSIC] FLORA LICHTMAN: Hey, it’s Flora and you’re listening to Science Friday. As you have likely heard many, many times, climate change makes weather more extreme and extreme weather more frequent. That we know.

What has been more difficult to measure is exactly how climate change has influenced a particular weather event. For example, how much more intense was Hurricane Lala because of climate change? How much more likely was the flooding in Nepal? How much more deadly were India’s heat waves this summer.

A growing field called attribution science is trying to answer questions like these. Here to tell us about the field, the challenges of this work, and why it’s so important is Dr. Joyce Kimutai. She’s a climate scientist for the World Weather Attribution consortium at Imperial College London and for the Kenya Meteorological Services. Joyce, welcome to Science Friday.

JOYCE KIMUTAI: Thank you very much. And thank you for having me here today.

FLORA LICHTMAN: Thank you for coming. Is that description of attribution science how you’d define it? Is there anything you’d change or add?

JOYCE KIMUTAI: I think that’s a perfect description. I mean, we could just say that– I mean, in very simple terms, it’s just a subfield of climate science that tries to put a number to the frequency and intensity of extreme events that we experience now due to climate change. So basically, saying, is climate change really to be blamed? And if yes, to what extent, and if no, to what extent?

FLORA LICHTMAN: It’s interesting, because I’ve covered climate change for a long time, and I feel like I’ve heard scientists tell me in the past that we can’t how much climate change is affecting one particular storm or weather event. So this feels kind of new. I mean, what’s changed?

JOYCE KIMUTAI: I think that that was what was done or that what was said almost 25 years ago or 20 years ago, and we couldn’t attribute single events at that particular time because the science or the methods hadn’t gotten there. But then, that has changed since then. So now we have– science has improved or methods have improved, and we can actually really look at individual events and see what the role of climate change is.

FLORA LICHTMAN: It sounds like difficult work or there’s a lot of variables to through.

JOYCE KIMUTAI: Yeah. So basically, I mean, to use very– in a very basic way on how we do this is that we look at the event in the climate of now. So let me just use an example of the West African floods that we experienced and we studied two weeks ago.

So what you would want to start doing is to first understand what exactly happened during these events. So for example, for West African flooding, the cities along the coast, the Guinea Coast, reported deaths close to, I think, 59 in Abidjan, and another 27, 26 in Lagos.

FLORA LICHTMAN: Fatalities from the storm.

JOYCE KIMUTAI: Fatalities. Exactly. So you look at those impacts and you say, where were these impacts reported? Because you’re trying to triangulate understand where these extreme events happen. And in observation, you want to know, what is the climatology? What is the normal rainfall in that city?

So Abidjan, for example, or Lagos, for example, what is the normal rainfall that happens there? And then you want to understand, OK, if the normal rainfall, what we call climatological rainfall is 50 millimeters, for example– I’m giving an example– but then during this event, what was different?

So you know that this was a rare event. It’s beyond the normal. And then the next step you want to do is that you now want to use climate models to simulate that event. Because, essentially, what we want to do is that we want to compare the weather of now or the event that happened now in this weather of 2026 versus the weather that would have happened in 1850s. Because this is what we call the pre-industrial climate or the counterfactual climate, which we consider as the climate before the onset of Industrial Revolution, and that is where we base our analysis on. So you want to say–

FLORA LICHTMAN: To understand the impact of all of these emissions that came from industrialization.

JOYCE KIMUTAI: Yes. So, basically, you want to say, OK, if this flooding that happened in West Africa or the Cyclone Helen that happened in the United States, if it happened in 1850s, would it be this intense? Would it be this severe?

FLORA LICHTMAN: So why is this important to you? Why did you get into this?

JOYCE KIMUTAI: I find it a very fascinating field because it’s very societally relevant field of science, because it really touches on everyday lives and livelihoods. Because weather affects literally everything and everyone. I mean, this is– when you go out there, you breathe, that is weather. We eat, that is weather. We move, that’s weather. So it’s everything that affects us.

And even now, with climate change, it’s bigger– it’s a big of an issue than ever before. And so I think, to me, I felt like that that’s a fascinating thing to do. It’s a fulfilling thing to do, to be able to communicate what these science means for society, to communicate what these science means for economies, for our lives and our livelihoods.

FLORA LICHTMAN: Yeah. Where do you think this field of attribution science will have the biggest impact?

JOYCE KIMUTAI: I think it’s having impact in most areas, but I see the key ones are on adaptation. So I see adaptation. I see loss and damage. I see litigation, for example. I see–

FLORA LICHTMAN: Holding emitters accountable.

JOYCE KIMUTAI: I think it’s the kind of science that really tells us– not just telling us– just blanketly saying that our climate is warm, but it’s the kind of science that puts a number to that. So we know for sure that– so in general climate science, you know unequivocally that climate has changed. But I think attribution science tries to push that a little bit further by saying, by how much, by who, and who needs to do what?

So for example, now we see research has gone into looking at individual contributions of emitters to say, for this heat wave or for these impacts, this emitter is liable to this much, or this is the contribution of this emitter. So I see that with that, with that kind of science, then comes the big question of liability and responsibility and justice, especially for communities at the forefront of the crisis.

FLORA LICHTMAN: That’s really fascinating. Thanks for joining us today, Joyce.

JOYCE KIMUTAI: Thank you.

FLORA LICHTMAN: Dr. Joyce Kimutai is a climate scientist for the Imperial College London’s World Weather Attribution Consortium and the Kenya Meteorological Services. Up next, the liability, responsibility and justice part. If scientists are able to connect the dots between emissions and harm to communities, what comes next? And how might emitters be held responsible.

That’s what my next guest thinks a lot about. Maxine Burkett has a background in climate and environmental law, and she’s a professor of climate, environment, and society at Stanford University. Maxine, welcome to Science Friday.

MAXINE BURKETT: Thank you for having me. It’s a real pleasure to be here.

FLORA LICHTMAN: Thanks for being here. So once you can connect climate change to a particular weather event, what kind of new legal action is opened up by that knowledge?

MAXINE BURKETT: Yeah. I mean, I think there are at least two important ways to think about. This once you’re able to make that connection and understand that it’s climate change, our planners and policymakers can be held accountable for making better decisions to keep us safe. And so, as emergency planners, for example, think about how to plan for a 500-year flood that’s now happening annually, we’ll see that the proper investments are made with respect to dams, with respect to roads and bridges, and their ability to withstand the new weather that we’re experiencing as a result of the change in climate, as a result of these increases in sources.

There’s also the issue of litigation. So in order for the cities to manage those impacts that are happening now, whether it’s heat extremes, or, again, these flooding events, they are going to need to engage in pretty major investment for their infrastructure. Those actions cost money. And being able to make the connection between the sources of major pollution, which climate change really is a pollution crisis at base, and then the impacts as a result of climate change will allow for better arguments in the courtroom.

FLORA LICHTMAN: So is the focus on specific companies or is it on an industry as a whole? On countries? What scale are we talking about?

MAXINE BURKETT: Well, it depends. It can be at all of those scales. And so certainly, at the domestic level in the United States, we’re seeing a number of state and local governments bringing cases against major emitters, oil and gas companies, in some cases, utilities as well, to seek redress for the impacts of climate change from the burning of fossil fuels, the extraction and combustion of fossil fuels. Many of those cases are in state courts.

And then there’s, of course, different ways to address this internationally. So for example, we have the UNFCCC process, the Framework Convention on Climate Change that allows for opportunities to seek support from other governments through loss and damage for those most impacted, the countries mostly in the global South who are exposed to and most vulnerable to climate change.

FLORA LICHTMAN: So give me an example of a case that’s happening now that’s using attribution science.

MAXINE BURKETT: Yeah. The city and County of Honolulu, like many other municipalities, is suing the oil and gas company major emitters for local environmental damages and deceptive marketing from fossil fuel companies, major fossil fuel companies because Honolulu is experiencing a number of increased precipitation events, experiencing drought, heat increase, and all of those are pretty well linked to the change in the increased emissions.

FLORA LICHTMAN: Thanks to attribution science, presumably.

MAXINE BURKETT: Well, thanks to attribution science. Absolutely. And so that financial compensation will help those local governments to pay for the massive damages that they are and will continue to experience as a result of climate change.

FLORA LICHTMAN: And this case is in progress?

MAXINE BURKETT: This case is in progress. It’s actually further along in many cases. It is and likely will be impacted by another case, Suncor versus Boulder County. That’s in front of the Supreme Court and will be heard this fall.

FLORA LICHTMAN: So something to keep on our radars this fall, sounds like.

MAXINE BURKETT: Yes, absolutely. Something to keep on the radar. Because the ability for states and city governments to pursue compensation for, again, the massive investments that have been destroyed or will have to be made to make their cities more climate resilient will be significant.

FLORA LICHTMAN: I mean, you mentioned pollution. Is that the template for this kind of litigation?

MAXINE BURKETT: I think so. I certainly address this in a way that I think is an accurate and accessible way to understand the climate crisis. What we’re experiencing right now isn’t normal. It’s the result of pollution over decades, mostly from certain countries and entities. But we have solved pollution crises previously, including global crises like the ozone hole. And we also have the opportunity, with that understanding, with better science, to actually make better decisions, to protect our communities, protect our households, ourselves, and to seek redress from those who are most responsible to help with the massive costs of those impacts.

FLORA LICHTMAN: Maxine Burkett is a professor of climate, environment, and society at Stanford University in California. Thank you for joining me today.

MAXINE BURKETT: Thank you.

FLORA LICHTMAN: This episode was produced by Rasha Aridi. Thanks for listening. I’m Flora Lichtman.

[THEME MUSIC]

Copyright © 2026 Science Friday Initiative. All rights reserved. Science Friday transcripts are produced on a tight deadline by 3Play Media. Fidelity to the original aired/published audio or video file might vary, and text might be updated or amended in the future. For the authoritative record of Science Friday’s programming, please visit the original aired/published recording. For terms of use and more information, visit our policies pages at http://www.sciencefriday.com/about/policies/